Turkey–Israel : geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Israel is taking shape, with the Horn of Africa becoming a key focal point. The growing tension is centered around control and influence in maritime zones linked to the Arabian Sea, with Somalia and the self-declared region of Somaliland turning into strategic hotspots.
Turkey Expands Its Footprint in Somalia
Turkey has significantly strengthened its ties with Somalia in recent years. As part of this cooperation, Ankara has secured rights to explore oil and gas resources both on land and offshore. In addition, Turkey maintains its largest overseas military training base in Somalia, underscoring its long-term strategic and security interests in the region.
Earlier this year, Somalia confirmed that Turkey is preparing to begin offshore drilling operations. Estimates suggest that Somalia’s waters could hold up to 30 billion barrels of oil and around 6 billion cubic meters of natural gas. However, much of these reserves remain unverified, leaving room for uncertainty.
Israel’s Strategic Bet on Somaliland
On the other side, Israel has made a bold geopolitical move by formally recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel became the first country to extend such recognition, marking a significant shift in regional dynamics.
Israel is also reportedly planning to establish a military base near the Gulf of Aden. This location would allow it to monitor Houthi rebel activities in Yemen more closely and strengthen its strategic access to the Red Sea corridor. Somaliland’s coastline, facing Yemen across the Gulf of Aden, adds to its military and logistical importance.
Strategic Implications of Military Presence
Israel’s proposed military base is aimed at enhancing surveillance over key maritime routes, particularly near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a crucial chokepoint for global shipping. Control or influence over this passage could provide a strategic advantage in both security and trade.
Turkey Voices Strong Opposition
Turkey has strongly criticized Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called the move illegal, emphasizing that it undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity. Ankara appears concerned that Israel’s growing presence in the region could challenge its own influence and disrupt its strategic plans.
A Region to Watch Closely
As both nations deepen their involvement, Somalia and Somaliland are fast becoming central to a broader geopolitical contest. With energy resources, military positioning, and control over key sea routes at stake, the Horn of Africa may witness heightened competition in the coming years.